Axiom’s Edge Science Fiction and Fantasy

By John J. Joex

We are just now heading into mid-season with many shows returning from their Winter hiatuses while others are just now prepping for their 2008-09 Season bow.  So it is worth a few minutes to consider the prospects of the Science Fiction and Fantasy shows still on the schedule (four have gone down so far).  This season has a record number of shows in the genre (totaling 29 with the Spring premieres and including marginal genre entries The Mentalist and The Eleventh Hour), though I believe that a good portion of those will not live on beyond the current season.

I have already briefly considered the cancellation prospects elsewhere, but I will use this opportunity to make a more full assessment and address all of the shows currently running as well as those that will premiere in the next month or so.  I will start with those least likely to have a date with the network executioner by season end, and work my way to those who already have an appointment on the schedule (which will appear in Part 2 of this article).

The Sure Things:
These are the series that almost certainly will receive a renewal for another season.  These are high profile shows and/or network staples that could even suffer a significant downturn in the ratings during the Spring months and still most likely receive a pickup for more episodes.

Lost (ABC) – The alphabet network has already indicated that this series will run through a sixth and final season.  Even if Season 5 tanked in the ratings and ABC decided to dump it, the series has a high enough profile that another network would almost certainly pick it up for its final season.

The Ghost Whisperer (CBS) – This show has become a Friday night staple and regularly pulls good numbers for a night with typically low viewership.  It saw a drop-off in its numbers at the beginning of the season, but has since come back stronger than ever.

The Mentalist (CBS) – This one has become a huge hit for CBS and will definitely see life beyond its first season.  Really not a Science Fiction and Fantasy show, but we started covering as the season began, so I will keep it on the radar for now.

Star Wars: The Clone Wars (Cartoon Network) – The kids love this one and it provides a high-profile half hour for the network on Friday nights.  I expect that as long as George Lucas is chugging these episodes out, the Cartoon Network will continue to air them.

The Shows Likely to get Renewed:
These series have either performed reasonably well or have become staples for their networks.  They will likely get a renewal unless they see a serious slide in their numbers over the next few months.  Even then, they still have a chance for survival.

Heroes (NBC) – The peacock network’s much maligned series has seen a significant ratings drop-off two seasons in a row and many of the TV sites have already placed it on the bubble.  However, I say that unless it tanks completely in the Spring, it will return.  It’s a high profile series that still has a lot of buzz and still performs well with the younger skewing crowd, and NBC is currently struggling in fourth place among the networks so it will hang on to a property like this (and they have recently indicated that they expect to pick it up for a fourth season).  They already sent a warning message in Fall with some behind the scenes shake ups, so the show is on notice.  I think this will lead to an upswing in the quality of the scripts and a return of the viewers (plus, Brian Fuller’s return to the series provides an added bonus).

Chuck (NBC) – Yeah, it has really slipped in the ratings during the early part of its sophomore season, but it has started to see a rebound.  Plus, the critics like it and it seems to have some strong supporters in the upper ranks of the network.  If its ratings just keep the pace they had toward the end of Fall, it will return.

Fringe (FOX) – This one received a lot of pre-season buzz and was pegged as a potential breakout hit.  It did not live up to that hype, but it has performed respectably after a rather lukewarm bow in September.  It has done well enough and has a high enough profile, with J. J. Abrams attached to it, to provide it with a strong chance for renewal.

Medium (NBC) – This show has become a mid-season staple for NBC and should continue to hold on to that role.

Supernatural (CW) – Doesn’t pull huge numbers, but then the CW does not expect it to.  It has a strong, core audience and performs well by that network’s expectations.  The only thing this show has to worry about is its network staying afloat.  The CW continues to struggle with viability, so that could dampen Supernatural’s future.  Even if the network did fold, I would bet good money that another channel would pick this one up.

Smallville (CW) – Word is that this one plans to wrap once the current season concludes, but if they decide to continue, The CW will welcome the show back.  See my comment from the Supernatural entry about the CW’s viability, though.

Batman: The Brave and the Bold (Cartoon Network) – More geared to younger viewers than other animated adventures for the Caped Crusader produced over the past couple of decades, but it seems to be doing well for the network.  Expect another season or two out of this property.

Legend of the Seeker (Syndicated) – Premiered with numbers comparable to a CW network show which is pretty good for a syndicated property.  It may be lacking a bit artistically, but expect this one to stick around for a while.

Already Renewed:

True Blood (HBO) – Didn’t have spectacular numbers, but HBO liked what it saw and it really turned into a “water cooler” show by the end of its first season.

Sanctuary (Sci Fi) – Pulled in really good numbers for the network and looks set to become their next Friday night flagship show.

In Part 2 of this article I look at the shows that really need to watch their step as well as those already on the executioner’s radar-screen.

Also, keep up with the weekly ratings and my ongoing Cancellation Threat at our Network Ratings Tracker site

New on DVD at the Axiom's Edge Webstore