Axiom’s Edge Science Fiction and Fantasy

The wait is almost over as this Friday finally brings the premiere of Joss Whedon’s much anticipated (and somewhat notorious) new series Dollhouse.  Those tracking the progress of the show know all about the behind the scenes struggles and network tinkering and maybe even about the preemptive Save Dollhouse campaign.  So now that the wait is almost over, how well can we expect it to do in the ratings?

As someone who has been tracking the Nielsens for network Science Fiction and Fantasy all season, I am will to put on my Swami hat and toss out some predictions.  With all the buzz, good and bad, the show has garnered, I see the premiere drawing plenty of attention, even if it is just from the “train wreck” effect.  So I’m predicting that it will pull no less than a 4.0 rating in the 18-49 demographic and at least 10 million viewers.  If it does succeed in grabbing those numbers and can maintain a sizeable chunk of that audience during its initial run, then I think FOX will greenlight it for a second season.  If its first night returns come in below that and/or if the numbers trail off pretty quickly following the premiere, well, this is FOX we’re talking about.  As a fan of all things Whedon, I definitely hope for the best for Dollhouse, so let’s just cross our fingers and all tune in to the show.  You can get a preview of the show online at FOX.com.

Dollhouse’s lead-in, Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles, is on notice right now, so it needs to hope for some respectable numbers as well if it wants to continue fighting the future beyond the current season.  I’m guessing that the Dollhouse premiere will help attract some attention to the show and it will pull a ratings number somewhere between 2.5 and 3.0 with around 8 million viewers.  If it can achieve and maintain those numbers, its chances for renewal will improve a bit.  If not, its countdown to termination begins.  (The TV by Numbers site gives a more generous estimate of what numbers the show needs to pull to survive.)

Friday night is a tough one for the ratings, so hopefully FOX will factor that in as well.  I think that if either or both of these shows can pull decent numbers on date-night, then the network should stand behind them.  But who knows what goes through the minds of network executives?

Stay tuned for this weekend’s Ratings Update to see how Dollhouse and The Sarah Connor Chronicles performed in their Friday night bows (I will shoot for a Valentine’s Day post of the numbers).  Meanwhile, give us your thoughts on how the Nielsens will look:

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