Axiom’s Edge Science Fiction and Fantasy

By John J. Joex

The 2008-09 season is now in the home stretch, so we can expect the networks to start announcing renewals and cancellations over the upcoming months.  Starting this week, I will track each of the current shows and look at how likely they are to receive a renewal based on the most recent ratings information.  I will post an update here and at our Cancellation Watch page every week or two based on ratings trends and/or network announcements.  You can also check the status of your favorite shows in the Cancellation Threat column in my weekly Network Ratings updates.

So far, we know of four shows that have received renewals:  True Blood (HBO),  Sanctuary (Sci Fi), Legend of the Seeker (Syndication), and Star Wars: The Clone Wars (just announced by the Cartoon Network).  The shows that are currently sure thing for renewals are Lost (ABC), The Ghost Whisperer (CBS), The Mentalist (CBS), and Fringe (FOX).  One show beyond the four cancelled earlier in the season has received the axe:  Kyle XY.  ABC Family announced this past week that the show would end after its third season.

Two shows are almost certainly goners at this point.  NBC’s Knight Rider sputtered through the first half of the season and should consider itself lucky to have received an episode order beyond its initial thirteen.  Since returning from its hiatus, it has practically disappeared against the competition from FOX’s juggernaut American Idol.  Knight Rider wraps up its new episodes on February 25th and it’s a good bet that will be the last we see of the show.  ABC’s Life on Mars got off to a decent start in Fall but saw a sustained downward trend in its numbers which only got worse when it moved to the Lost lead-out slot in January.  It has sunk well below levels tolerable to ABC, and the show will almost certainly get the axe before too long.

Another show in trouble (even though it hasn’t aired an episode yet) is ABC’s Cupid which will debut next month.  This remake of a 1998 failed series has a lot going against it.  It is coming in late as a mid-season replacement and will get stuck in the Tuesday 10 PM EST deathslot.  Also, ABC just recently cut the episode order from thirteen to eight.  That’s a lot of hurdles to overcome.

I thought Smallville was supposed to wrap after this season, but no confirmation on that yet.  If they want to carry it into a ninth season, I’m sure the CW would welcome its return.  And while Supernatural’s numbers have dipped some, I would say it still has a good chance of continuing into a fifth season.  The biggest worry for both of these shows is the viability of the CW which continues to struggle to keep its head above water.

Then there are several shows that have varying chances of renewal depending on how they perform in the ratings as the season closes.  I would have considered Heroes almost a sure thing, but then it really saw a drop in its numbers with the second episode of Volume 4.  True NBC doesn’t have too many other ratings blockbusters to brag about, but I would say that this one needs to at least hold onto its audience if not build it back up to get the nod for renewal.

Heroes companion shows on Monday night are on notice as well.  Chuck got off to a slow start early in the season but has trended upward.  And somebody at NBC really likes this show so if it can keep its numbers moving in the right direction it should be okay.  Medium has seen a significant drop in its numbers from last season, so it could be in trouble if things don’t turn around.

I would have thought CBS’s The Eleventh Hour would have been a sure thing for renewal based on its numbers this year (second only to The Mentalist among genre shows), but then I don’t understand why the network gave it a truncated episode order for the second half of the season.   Maybe they don’t like the fact that it consistently loses a fair amount of the audience of its CSI lead-in, but still I would think they would be happy with its overall performance.  Of course Moonlight got the boot because it regularly lost viewers from its Ghost Whisperer lead-in, so The Eleventh Hour needs to watch its step.

I have already spoken at length about Dollhouse and The Sarah Connor Chronicles earlier this week and their success depends on the numbers they pull starting from tonight.

The CW’s Reaper returns in March and NBC’s new Kings will bow during that month as well.  Reaper barely got the nod for a second season so it is already on a short leash.  Kings sounds like kind of a hard concept for Prime Time audiences to swallow, but who knows, it could be the next Lost.

One last show to mention is ABC Family’s Summer 2008 entry The Middleman.  This fun little series has fallen off the radar though the network has not officially announced its cancellation.  It’s not on ABC Family’s upcoming schedule, though, so its prospects look grim.  I’d definitely like to see it return though.

Check our Cancellation Watch page for any show I haven’t mentioned here and check back on a regular basis as I will continue to provide updates on the standings of these shows and announcements from the networks.

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