Axiom’s Edge Science Fiction and Fantasy

By John J. Joex

The new season is just about to start, so as you are watching your favorite returning series or starting to get attached to one of the new entries, how do you know if that show’s network will suddenly decide to pull the plug on it? Simple answer: you don’t. Who knows what goes through the minds of network executives? But there are a few trends you can watch for to give you some indicators. These are things that I have noticed over the last couple of years and they have helped me in making decisions on the Cancellation Alert status of a show in our Ratings Tracker section (which is starting back up in two weeks). Watch for these trends, but also know that many other forces come into play as well.

If you are watching a show on ABC that is not Lost (and they have three bowing this Fall: FlashForward, V, and Eastwick), don’t get too attached to it. You have to give the network credit for trying as they continue to give us new entries in the genre. In the last few years they have given us such inventive shows as Pushing Daisies, Eli Stone, and Life On Mars. But what do all three of those shows have in common (in fact every Science Fiction and Fantasy show on the network in the past five years)? They all got the axe after short runs. ABC keeps looking for the next Lost, but unfortunately has little patience for shows that do not deliver stellar ratings. The fact is that Lost was a rare event in that it captured a large audience right out of the gates. Most shows in the genre, though, take a while to catch on and rarely perform at the top of the charts. So unless the three new entries from ABC score very well in the ratings, I do not have high hopes for them sticking around too long.

And speaking of networks with low tolerance, CBS tops the list. If it is not The Ghost Whisperer, do not get attached to it. To reinforce this, note that CBS has no new Science Fiction and Fantasy shows on its schedule this season (nor do I even think they have anything waiting in the wings). This means that Medium, which CBS grabbed after NBC cancelled it last season, is on notice. That series gets the Friday 9 PM EST timeslot that no show has thrived in for years. Sure it’s paired up with the network’s successful Ghost Whisperer, which will help. And CBS produces the show meaning that it costs them less to air it (another trend to look for, by the way). But the network has shown no willingness to support Science Fiction and Fantasy shows in the recent past. Witness their cancellation of The Eleventh Hourlast season which ended up ranked Number 21 among all shows (highest among any genre show for the season, in fact). CBS is committed to the CSI / NCIS style procedurals or sitcoms and reality shows and just does not have much interest in branching out. So if Medium sees much of a drop-off from its The Ghost Whisperer lead-in during its first season on the eye network, count it as endangered. And if a new genre series bows at mid-season, don’t get too attached to it.

And what about FOX, the network once notorious as the Sci Fi Killer? Well last year, that network seemed to experience a rebirth relating to genre shows. First, Fringe bowed early to unspectacular ratings, but FOX did not flinch. In fact, they moved the show to the post-House timeslot where it thrived and eventually became a hit. Then, Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles stumbled out of the gates at the start of its second season, but FOX did not lose faith and in fact picked it up for a full season of episodes. Sure, the show eventually got the axe, but that was after it continued to lose viewers. Then there was the miracle renewal of Dollhouse which even the CW might have cut ties with based on its poor returns. So were FOX executives just smoking the good stuff last year and feeling really generous? Or have they changed their way of thinking and become more Sci Fi friendly? This one is hard to call at this point. We will have to see how things go this season, but I’m hoping for the best.

As for the actual ratings performance of a show, networks are usually not as interested in the overall viewership of a show as they are in its performance in certain demographics. The most desired demographic is the 18-49 group because that represents the majority of the people making buying decisions in a home. The more narrow 18-34 group is also quite desirable because that group tends to respond better to advertising. The continued high performance of Heroes in that group, despite its overall drop-off, helped keep it alive last year. And sometimes, networks pay attention to even more narrow groups. Last year’s clunker Knight Rider performed well with males in the 18-34 range which is apparently a hard audience to keep in front of broadcast television on a regular basis. That is how the show received an extension beyond its initial thirteen episodes despite overall poor numbers.

Cable channels do not demand as high of an audience for original shows as the networks do because along with advertising they make money from the fees they charge to the cable providers that carry them. So for example, this past Summer’s new entry on SyFy, Warehouse 13, is considered a huge hit because it has been averaging 3.5 – 4 million viewers per episode. However, on any of the broadcast networks except the CW, those numbers would assure a quick exit for the show. Of course even the cable channels have certain levels of tolerance, and will cut ties if a show drops below a certain level or does not perform well with their focus demographic, showing little more patience than the broadcast networks (witness ABC Family’s cancellation of the much-lauded The Middleman in Summer 2008 and note how this also ties back to ABC’s overall attitude mentioned above). Where these levels are varies from channel to channel, but they are there. So while many fan campaigns seek to target the cable channels as rescuers when the broadcast networks cancel a show, they should know that these venues still possess a very similar mindset, just on a smaller scale.

Another trend to look for is a network’s desire to pad out episodes to present a more attractive syndication package, and this impacts two of NBC’s returning shows. Channels looking to pick up a series through syndication prefer more episodes to less. That way if they air the show on weekdays, it would run for several months before repeating itself. Fifty episodes can make a decent syndication package if the show brings a loyal fanbase with it, but a hundred plus episodes is much more attractive. Heroes will have over 70 episodes after the completion of the upcoming season and Chuck will have close to 50. At around those numbers, the network could afford to keep one or both of the shows going even if their ratings are not that great, knowing that they will make back their money in syndication. I’m thinking this will factor in more for Chuck as that show has not seen as much drop-off in viewership as Heroes. Keeping that one alive for yet another season would bring its total to between 60 and 70 episodes after a fourth season, which helps boost its market value on the syndication network. As for Heroes, if it continues to fade and generate more negative buzz across the internet, I’m thinking NBC will go ahead and cut ties with that one.

Other factors that could affect the decision making of networks executives are DVD sales, Internet downloads, and online viewing, though it is still hard to tell how much weight each of these carries. Allegedly, the iTunes downloads of Dollhouse factored into the decision to renew that show. It regularly topped the iTunes charts for Television shows during freshman run. Also, supposedly FOX executives expected strong DVD sales for the series (and it is currently number 3 on Amazon.com for Science Fiction and Fantasy box sets). Then there is the online viewing option at sites like Hulu.com and typically at the networks’ own sites as well. That one seems to be the hardest to gauge right now (I have seen nothing which consistently tracks those numbers), but it has to be a factor because the online broadcasts include advertising spots. I believe that all three of these will become more prominent in determining the fate of many shows going forward, but it is hard to tell how quickly that will happen.

Ultimately, it’s still a guessing game. Networks have their stockholders and board of directors to answer to and ultimately they just want to show that they are turning a profit. So they act accordingly, even if their decisions often mystify us. So when watching your favorite shows this season, keep these trends in mind and know that these along with other forces could influence their fate. Also know that if the right producer gets the right network executive drunk at the right time, that could save the show as well (and I’m still convinced this is what Whedon did).

Previous: A New Season and More Shows to be Cancelled

Go to the Cancellation Watch Page for the 2009-10 Season

Shop Science Fiction and Fantasy at the Axiom’s Edge Bazaar:

Great deals on DVDs, Books, Comics, Toys, Collectibles and More. Plus, find more Science Fiction and Fantasy Websites, New Authors, Services, etc.